According to newly released January data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), 2026 kicked off with a 3.8% increase in total air passenger demand, compared to the same month last year.
International growth was up even more, with a year-over-year increase of 5.9%. Demand for domestic air travel, on the other hand, was relatively flat, rising only 0.1% over January 2025.
Our Analysis: Travel Intent Is Strong, But the Aviation Market Needs Monitoring
IATA’s data reveals a healthy overall outlook for the travel industry so far in 2026, with consumers showing high intent of hitting the road. According to the organization, average airfares are also expected to fall over the course of 2026, a factor that could encourage more clients to get trips booked or even expand their travel plans.
That said, there’s one area of aviation where IATA is expressing concern: 2025 saw the slowest rate of new airline startups since 1999, which it considers a warning sign for competition in the market. Without healthier competition among carriers, IATA notes, consumer benefits could be at risk — something our government and our industry will need to keep a close eye on.
Fast Facts: Regional Numbers
- Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 4.4% year-over-year increase in demand.
- European carriers saw 6.3% growth.
- North American air demand rose 3.4%.
- Latin American airlines reported an 11.4% increase.
- Middle Eastern air demand grew by 7.2%.
- African carriers saw an 11.7% year-on-year increase.
What They Are Saying: Airline Competition Is Important for Consumers
“In the face of … cost and regulatory pressures, it is notable that 2025 saw the slowest rate of new airline start-ups since 1999,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. “Governments who value competition should consider this a canary in the coal mine. To protect and enhance the consumer benefits of connectivity, these cost and regulatory issues must be addressed.”
