Demand for travel this summer will “potentially be the strongest ever,” says Geoff Freeman, president and CEO of the U.S. Travel Association.
During a quarterly roundtable with media, Freeman said that the leisure sector is strong and summer air travel is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels. The Transportation Security Administration is already screening 2 million passengers each day, and more are expected.
Freeman warned that this type of travel demand is likely to create frustration by travelers since the air travel system is “woefully underfunded and understaffed.” Freeman pointed to the recent system failure at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) that grounded numerous flights as an example of how fragile the system currently is.
While we can’t change what will happen this summer, we can make a better decision for going forward.
"The upcoming summer season will be a stress test, and likely a wakeup call, for many policymakers,” he said. “While we can’t change what will happen this summer, we can make a better decision for going forward.”
He also shared that while domestic travel is strong — with more than a quarter of Americans planning to spend more, and more than half of Americans planning travel in the next six months — there is a lag in inbound international travel due to excessively long wait times for visas. Visitor figures are only 79% compared to 2019 figures, he said.
Despite the lag in international visitors, wait times at U.S. Customs and Border Protection have become increasingly long, which is further confounding the problem and the expected economic recovery.
What’s Wrong With the U.S. Air Travel System?
According to Freeman, the problems we are confronting are not coming out of thin air.
"They have been driven by a slate of missed opportunities,” Freeman said.
He says that the top three things that have led to the challenges experienced by the U.S. air travel system include:
1. Aviation infrastructure and technology have been chronically underfunded.
2. There is a labor shortage, especially regarding pilots and air traffic controllers. There are currently 1,200 fewer certified air traffic controllers than there were 10 years ago, despite an increase in travel demand, which will result in significantly more delays at busy airports. Freeman said that New York airports can expect a 45% increase in delays due to the air traffic controller shortage, and that the FAA has asked airports in New York and Washington, D.C. to pull back slots due to the issue.
3. Demands on the aviation system are increasing.
How Can FAA Reauthorization Decrease Flight Delays and Cancellations?
These problems will continue into 2024 and beyond, said Freeman, unless travelers demand a better system and policy makers make the necessary changes.
“The federal government has an opportunity to fix the mistakes,” Freeman said. “This year’s Federal Aviation Administration Reauthorization bill is an opportunity to address flight delays and cancellations, pilot shortages and congestion at airports. Most travelers want a system that works.”
U.S. Travel wants policymakers to consider:
1. Providing at least $50 million per year for aviation workforce development programs to increase the supply of qualified pilots and mechanics.
2. Offering $4.5 billion in funding for air traffic control infrastructure and technology, with enough funding to hire 1,800 new air traffic controllers per year over the next three years, while fixing the staffing model to ensure the controllers are in the right places.
3. Granting at least $4 billion per year in Airport Improvement Program Grants and enabling medium and large-hub airports to keep more of their grant funding.
Will Travel This Summer Be as Bad as Last Summer?
Summer 2022 was the year of lost luggage and flight cancellations and delays.
When I look at images of 2022 — of lost luggage, of the demand — I am hopeful that we have learned some lessons and planned accordingly.
While most of the fundamental issues have still not been addressed, Freeman believes that we will see less of the pandemonium of last summer. Instead, this summer will feel more like traveling “the Wednesday before Thanksgiving.”
“They are going to confront a busy experience, such as longer lines at checkpoints,” he said. “When I look at images of 2022 — of lost luggage, of the demand — I am hopeful that we have learned some lessons and planned accordingly. The changes in capacity will help some of those problems.”
Nonetheless, Freeman says that Americans are fed up with the air travel system, pointing to recent research that finds that “more than half of Americans would travel more for leisure in the next six months if the experience were not as much of a hassle.”
This will be another summer for “packing your patience,” but Freeman says that there is a place to direct frustration.
"We should be impatient with how these investments are made,” he said.
