Tourism officials expect to see fewer domestic visitors to the Hawaiian Islands in 2025, due in part to reduced airlift from the U.S. mainland this year.
Hawaii’s Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) is forecasting that just over 7 million U.S. travelers will visit the Aloha State in 2025, a decline of 2.7% from last year.
Total transpacific U.S. air seats are, meanwhile, projected to dip 1.7% year-over-year in 2025 to 10.4 million. That figure is off more than 4% from the total number of domestic air seats to Hawaii in 2023, according to DBEDT data.
Visitor industry stakeholders discussed the forecast data last month in Honolulu at the annual Hawaii Tourism Authority’s (HTA) Spring Tourism Update, which featured presentations from the destination’s global marketing teams and a look ahead at vacation business to the islands in 2025.
Jennifer Chun, the DBEDT’s director of tourism research, noted during her presentation that the forecast for transpacific U.S. lift to Hawaii was even dimmer in June of this year, with domestic air seats to the Islands expected to sink 5.8% year over year during the month.
So, for you hoteliers out there, I don’t know what your booking pace is looking like, but you’re getting less people who are going to be able to come.
“Not great when you look for the summer,” Chun said. “So, for you hoteliers out there, I don’t know what your booking pace is looking like, but you’re getting less people who are going to be able to come. The capacity is going to be lower.”
Is Hawaii Too Expensive?
Although Hawaii tourism officials are expecting fewer travelers this year from the destination’s largest source market, DBEDT is forecasting total visitor expenditures will increase 2.5% year over year to $21.3 billion in 2025.
“Hawaii’s image has increasingly become associated with luxury and premium offers,” said Daniel Nahoopii, the HTA’s former interim president and CEO, during last month’s Spring Tourism Update. “While this appeals to some travelers, it can create a distance between us and a more mid-range traveler, which is an important segment for [the] long-term sustainability of our tourism industry. A shift toward an image of high cost could potentially limit Hawaii’s ability to remain diverse and appealing to all types of travelers who come here — particularly those looking for high value."
(Editor’s Note: Nahoopii resigned as interim HTA president and CEO on March 20, and has been replaced by Caroline Anderson, HTA’s interim chief administrative officer, until the HTA Board selects a new leader.)
A shift toward an image of high cost could potentially limit Hawaii’s ability to remain diverse and appealing to all types of travelers who come here — particularly those looking for high value.
The increased cost of a Hawaii vacation is impacting Pleasant Holidays’ bookings to the destination, according to David Hu, the tour operator’s president and CEO, who said he expected stronger business to the islands this year.
“Unfortunately, Hawaii still has pretty high ADRs [average daily hotel rates],” Hu said. “But I think as we get closer to summer, and things are not falling into place, we might see some revisions downward in terms of the ADRs offered out there."
Rhonda Shumway, a longtime Hawaii seller and the president of TerraMar Travel in Hemet, California, said cost has also been impacting her agency’s bookings to the destination.
“Pricing in Hawaii has increased so dramatically that we're seeing a little bit of a softening there,” Shumway said. “Over the years, we've just had a huge Hawaii business, but after COVID-19, the pricing went way up, and we haven't seen it come down.”
What’s New in the Hawaiian Islands?
Robyn Basso, senior director of travel industry partnerships for the Hawaii Visitors and Convention Bureau (HVCB), announced during last month’s Spring Tourism Update that the marketing organization is holding educational blitzes for travel advisors April 7-9 in San Francisco, San Jose and Newport Beach, California, and October 20-24 in Boston and New York.
“These evening events offer immersive cultural experiences, storytelling, networking and the latest information about Hawaii travel,” Basso said. “Advisors will enjoy Hawaiian music and hula, have networking opportunities with suppliers and receive valuable insights to help market and sell the Hawaiian Islands."
Basso also mentioned that the Mauna Kea Beach Hotel on Hawaii Island “will soon unveil a $180- million-dollar renovation,” where work has focused on modernizing the nearly 60-year-old property.
“The transformation includes redesigned guestrooms, suites, dining venues, an extensive destination spa and an infinity pool experience,” Basso said.
The Moana Surfrider, a Westin Resort & Spa located on Oahu’s Waikiki Beach also recently announced “a multiyear transformation of three wings of the resort's guestrooms and suites, [that’s] scheduled for completion in 2026 to coincide with the resort's 125th anniversary,” according to Basso.
And agents.gohawaii.com has been recently updated with a refreshed look and more efficient navigation features, along with new campaign assets and travel advisor tools.
“Advisors can also find the 2025 Digital Statewide Visitors Guide and individual Island Guidebooks to share with clients,” Basso added. “The interactive map now highlights each island's attractions with descriptions, itineraries and drive times. And Pre-Travel Guides have been developed for each island, highlighting reservation requirements, ways to support local businesses and mindful travel tips. Advisors can add these links to email confirmations or embed them into itinerary builders.”
Helping Maui
Jeffrey Eslinger, the HVCB’s senior director of market insights, noted during the Spring Tourism Update that Maui’s recovery after the August 2023 wildfires remains a difficult, uphill climb.
“Maui continues to face significant challenges — continued softness in visitation and airlift,” Eslinger said. “The lingering effects of wildfires, particularly in West Maui, are impacting bookings and visitor confidence and is a key area of focus for our recovery efforts. But the impacts of the wildfires are not just about physical damage. It’s also about the perception of safety and overall experience of visitors going to West Maui.”
The HVCB’s Basso said travel advisors can be a big help.
With many Lahaina businesses now reopened, travelers play a vital role in supporting our community's continued resilience.
“The best way to support Maui is through travel,” she said, noting that advisors can share suggested Maui itineraries with clients through gohawaii.com/maui.
“Visitors can also make a meaningful impact by supporting local businesses listed at mauinuifirst.com and engaging in our community events — from weekly farmers’ markets to cultural festivals,” Basso said. “With many Lahaina businesses now reopened, travelers play a vital role in supporting our community's continued resilience. A few notable businesses and restaurants that have opened include Old Lahaina Luau, Lahaina Cannery Mall, Mala Tavern, Maui Kuia Chocolate Factory Tour, Star Noodle and Sale Pepe.”
