Spotlight 2019: A Travel Industry Forecast

The outlook for travel in 2019 can be described as generally optimistic, with a few pockets of uncertainty and concern. In fact, a lot of the way you look at the year ahead has to do with your particular specialty, as well as how much you believe global issues affect people’s desire to travel.

There’s no denying that the U.S. economy is strong right now: We have low unemployment, a mostly surging stock market and very manageable inflation. Tax cuts put a few extra dollars in many (or at least some) Americans’ pockets, and consumer confidence is high. Best of all for travel, the dollar is strong and continuing to grow stronger around the world.

All these macro-economic factors should encourage U.S. consumers to take a long-haul trip — or two — in 2019.

Yet there are some concerning indications to keep an eye on, as well.

According to MMGY Global’s Portrait of American Travelers Forecast for 2018-2019, leisure travel spending this year will be relatively flat compared to 2017, and it will remain flat throughout 2019. The survey asked travelers about their intentions to travel more, less or the same in the year ahead compared to the previous 12 months. Twenty-one percent of travelers indicated an intention to take more vacations, while 30 percent reported they plan to take fewer vacations — resulting in a nine-point negative variance in vacation intentions in 2018.

“This is the first time that variance has been negative in the 12 years the question has been asked,” the report stated. “It raises a concern about a potential softening of the leisure travel market in the months ahead.”

Still, travel advisors are generally optimistic: Most agent surveys show that a high percentage of respondents expect their sales to increase in 2019. According to the latest Travel Trends Survey from Travel Leaders Group (TLG), more than two-thirds of agents who participated in the survey report that clients are spending somewhat to significantly more per trip in 2019 versus the current year, and more than 90 percent feel positive or very positive about their business outlook for the coming year. 

Despite the optimistic outlook, there are several global situations that have the potential to affect travel in unforeseen ways.

First, the impacts of Brexit are expected to hit next year, which may bring travel interruptions and other confusion to the travel industry if agreements are not reached between the U.K. and its European neighbors. According to research firm Phocuswright, “with the March 2019 Brexit deadline looming, making projections about the long-term prospects for the U.K. travel industry can get a bit dicey.” (Note: Phocuswright and TravelAge West are owned by parent company Northstar Travel Group.)

Next, some analysts are predicting higher worldwide oil prices based on possible conflicts between the U.S. and Middle Eastern oil-producing nations, including Saudi Arabia and Iran. Higher oil prices could greatly affect airlines, cruise lines and other segments of the travel industry.

Also, the full effects of the Trump administration’s trade tariff strategy are still unknown. If successful, it could increase consumer confidence; if unsuccessful, it could be a major blow to large segments of the U.S. economy.

Despite these uncertainties, many clients continue to be very adventurous with their travel choices. Sri Lanka, Egypt and Bolivia are some of the “hot” countries to watch in 2019, while many lists of top destinations also include Japan, Croatia, Ethiopia, Jordan and Argentina. 

In terms of trends to watch next year, personalization is the new buzzword, as travelers look to craft every aspect of their vacations. In the Virtuoso Luxe Report released last month, advisors indicated that clients “are not just seeking restaurant reservations, but exact tables at in-demand hot spots, as well as preordering wine to accompany the meal.”

According to TLG agents, top travel trends include active and adventure trips; honeymoon and destination weddings; culinary- and wine-themed travel; reunions; wellness getaways; and women-only journeys.

Finally, it should come as no surprise to anyone that social media is a huge driving force in travel. In fact, a recent survey by U.K.-based vacation rental home insurance provider Schofields found that 40 percent of people under 33 years old prioritize “Instagrammability” when choosing their next vacation destination.

So let your clients know that you can get them to the best spots for their social media reputation. In 2019, you might need every extra bit of travel excitement you can generate.

Below are some editor predictions for 2019.

Overtourism has wreaked havoc on some of our favorite spots.

Case in point: Iceland, which consistently tops “hot spot” travel lists, has seen a 25 percent growth in tourism each year for the past four years. Because of the strain on existing infrastructure, the country initiated a destination management plan in 2015.

Luckily, the travel industry is taking note and shifting its focus from overtrodden destinations to alternative options (Intrepid Travel just released its second “Not Hot” list, focusing this year on alternative destinations in Asia). The awareness of this issue will likely increase clients’ interest in sustainably visiting off-the-beaten-path destinations.

Some governments are already actively promoting this type of tourism in their countries. This year’s Visit Japan Travel Mart in Tokyo featured a United Nations World Tourism Organization-moderated ministrial roundtable discussion on sustainable travel that contributes to community development.

Two especially impressive tactics? Bhutan’s daily sustainability fee (charged to each visitor entering the country), and Malaysia’s Ministry of Tourism’s home-stay program, which integrates foreign tourists into the country’s traditional rural villages.

Read More: These Are the Destinations to Watch in 2019

Despite political volatility, natural disasters and the like, it’s clear that people are still clamoring to jet off to their next destination.

Jeremy Palmer, senior vice president for Tauck Land Journeys, put it this way: “We’ve been in an almost two-decade period of instability at this point, so it’s become everyone’s new normal. There’s no excuse not to travel.”

Thankfully, the desire to travel is resilient, as well as necessary for people to become open-minded global citizens. But it’s also important for all of us in the industry to ensure that travel, in all its forms, is available to everyone. I met the inspiring Elspeth Knight, founder and director of EnCompass Disability Travel Consultancy, while attending the Adventure Travel World Summit in Tuscany, Italy, last month.

Knight has long loved adventure travel, but after her conditions of multiple sclerosis and epilepsy progressed, such trip options became extremely limited. She told me that she is, quite frankly, “fed up with having to fight for adventure travel just because [her] legs don’t work properly” — and her frustrations are certainly justified.

As we continue to encourage travel, we must also educate ourselves to reach all demographics of travelers. Sure, it’s positive for business — travelers with disabilities are reportedly a $1.2 trillion market — but it’s also simply the right thing to do.

Read More: How Tour Operators Will Respond to Overtourism in 2019 and 3 Top Travel Trends for 2019

The cruise industry is constantly creating and evolving — and it’s outdoing itself in the process. One of the most significant ways that’s currently happening is with wild onboard attractions.

It’s my prediction that rides on ships will get more elaborate. It may be true now that Carnival Cruise Line’s SkyRide is the closest thing to a rollercoaster at sea, but I believe it’s only a matter of time before a company places a full-blown coaster on its upper decks. With some inventiveness, even shifting centers of gravity can be overcome.

In the meantime, cruise lines often look to terrestrial attractions for new ideas, and there is another off-the-shelf design that’s just waiting to be perched on the pool deck. German-based Wiegand.Maelzer — a company already putting its slides on many of Royal Caribbean’s biggest ships — has the SlideWheel.

This awesome attraction combines waterslides with Ferris wheels for a new kind of irresistible ride with multilevel twists and turns. The kaleidoscopic meandering looks like M.C. Escher dreamt up a waterslide. Best of all for cruise ships, its footprint is relatively compact, making it perfect for saving space onboard.

I’m betting that, soon enough, we’ll see this — and a rollercoaster — on a cruise ship.

Read More: Cruise Lines to Expand Specialty Entertainment in 2019

There’s no doubt that hotel brands are investing in technology across the board — from direct-booking platforms that compel users to avoid OTAs and perhaps even travel advisors — to in-room tech that creates a seamless and personalized stay. However, even with a fully integrated system, hotels will never know as much as a savvy advisor who’s invested in her client.

Keep building strong relationships with the clients you serve — and drop hints about your ability to conjure value-added perks such as credits and upgrades — and your future will continue to look good.

Read More: The Top Hotel Trends for 2019

As airlines find new ways to charge for extra amenities, travel agents will have more options for customizing clients’ air travel experiences. But advisors may find new competition online, according to Jay Sorensen, president of IdeaWorksCompany.

“Google will monetize Google Flights in some manner, and Amazon will dip its toe into the travel marketplace,” he said. “I don’t have insider information here, but I feel these two retail giants won’t be able to ignore the opportunities in travel any longer.”

Read More: Top Airline Trends for 2019