What: GlobalData Releases a New Travel Industry Forecast for 2022 to 2025
Although international travel is on the rise, new insights from data and analytics company GlobalData indicate that it will take until 2025 for the industry to reach pre-pandemic levels. According to the firm, international departures will reach 68% of pre-COVID-19 levels globally this year, and are expected to reach 82% in 2023, and 97% in 2024. GlobalData predicts that 2025 will see 101% of 2019 levels, with a projected 1.5 billion international departures.
Why It Matters: The Travel Industry’s Recovery Will Take Time and Be Uneven Across Regions
Even with pent-up demand and rising tourism numbers, the international travel industry has a long road ahead when it comes to pandemic recovery. What’s more, the trajectory is not the same for all regions and countries: International travel from North America, for example, is projected to make a full recovery by 2024 (reaching 102% of 2019 levels), while outbound departures from Europe are projected to take a little longer than average, reaching 98% by 2025 (due in part to the war in Ukraine).
One bright spot: The U.S. rose to become to world’s largest outbound market in 2021, indicating plenty of opportunity on the home front for travel advisors.
Fast Facts: Factors Affecting Travel’s Recovery
- Asia-Pacific is expected to lag quite a bit in recovery due to the slower removal of travel restrictions, as well as China’s strict border measures. Once the world’s largest outbound travel market, China’s international departures reached just 2% of 2019 levels in 2021, and the country does not currently show signs of relaxing its border policies.
- International departures from European countries are expected to reach 69% of 2019 levels in 2022. That said, limited outbound travel from Russia (the world’s fifth-largest outbound market in 2019) could hinder Europe’s overall recovery as the war in Ukraine continues.
- Other factors that could play a part in slower recovery for some regions or countries include inflation and the rising cost of living.
What They Are Saying: The Outlook Is Still Optimistic for the Travel Industry’s Future
“While global international travel is set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2025, tourism demand may look quite different,” said Hannah Free, travel and tourism analyst at GlobalData. “From two years of very limited travel, several long-term shifts and short-term trends have emerged. Consumers are now more likely to pursue authentic experiences, demand personalized travel offerings, blend business and leisure travel and be more conscious of their overall environmental impact. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal situation. However, a potential full recovery by 2025 at the latest gives good reason for the travel and tourism industry to be optimistic for the future.”
