When I wrote my article on cruise predictions for 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had not yet upped its warning for the travel segment.
But on Dec. 30, the CDC listed cruise ship travel at “Level 4: Very High” for prevalence of COVID-19, reflecting “increases in cases onboard cruise ships since identification of the Omicron variant,” according to the agency. As such, it recommends that cruise ships be avoided regardless of vaccination status.
Leading up to this change were several dozen cruise ships sailing at the CDC’s yellow color-coded status, which meets the CDC’s threshold for further investigation. (At the time of this writing, 91 vessels are categorized as yellow.)
It’s important to recognize the criteria for meeting this threshold. On restricted voyages, as permitted by the Conditional Sailing Order (CSO), it only takes COVID-19 cases in 0.1% or more of passengers (or just one or more cases total reported in crew) to classify it in this way.
Such low numbers, especially compared to those on land, have many in the travel industry scratching their heads.
This includes Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA), which issued the following statement on the new guidance, in a press release:
“The decision by the CDC to raise the travel level for cruise is particularly perplexing considering that cases identified on cruise ships consistently make up a very slim minority of the total population onboard — far fewer than on land — and the majority of those cases are asymptomatic or mild in nature, posing little to no burden on medical resources onboard or onshore. No setting can be immune from this virus — however, it is also the case that cruise provides one of the highest levels of demonstrated mitigation against the virus. Cruise ships offer a highly controlled environment with science-backed measures, known testing and vaccination levels far above other venues or modes of transportation and travel, and significantly lower incidence rates than land.
No setting can be immune from this virus — however, it is also the case that cruise provides one of the highest levels of demonstrated mitigation against the virus.
“While we are disappointed and disagree with the decision to single out the cruise industry — an industry that continues to go above and beyond compared to other sectors — CLIA and our ocean-going cruise line members remain committed to working collaboratively with the CDC in the interest of public health and safety."
The release cited statistics that paint a sunny picture of the cruise industry when compared to the rest of the country: cruise goers have a 95% vaccination rate vs. 62% for the overall U.S. population; the U.S. cruise industry administers nearly 10 million tests per week (21 times the rate within the country itself); and positive COVID-19 cases on cruise ships are 33% lower than onshore.
This all should read as reassuring to clients currently considering cruises, as should information issued by Royal Caribbean Group soon before the CDC updated its guidance that is consistent with broader findings about the pandemic.
"The company is navigating through the ever-evolving information on the Omicron variant,” said Dr. Calvin Johnson, chief medical officer for Royal Caribbean, in a separate press release. “Our case count has spiked, but the level of severity is significantly milder. We will remain nimble and in constant contact with health authorities. For example, even before Omicron, we have been giving all our crewmembers booster shots as they became eligible."
On Royal Caribbean Group cruises — which includes sailings with Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises and Silversea Cruises — 1.1 million guests have sailed since June 2021, and 1,745 people have tested positive for COVID-19. This amounts to a positivity rate of 0.162%. Most of those cases showed no symptoms or only mild symptoms, and 41 people were hospitalized. Plus, there have been no Omicron-specific cases that have been severe or required hospitalization.
"Omicron is having a big short-term impact on everyone, but many observers see this as a major step toward COVID-19 becoming endemic rather than epidemic," said Richard Fain, the group’s chairman and newly retired CEO, in the release.
We don't like to see even one case, but our experience is a fraction of the comparable statistics of virtually any other comparable location or industry.
"We don't like to see even one case, but our experience is a fraction of the comparable statistics of virtually any other comparable location or industry. Few businesses are subject to such intense scrutiny, regulation and disclosure requirements by so many authorities, and we welcome that scrutiny because of our commitment to safety. We intend to maintain our goal of delivering the safest vacation on land or sea, and will constantly adjust our procedures to accomplish this even in the face of Omicron’s amazing transmissibility.”
Further good news is that, despite the CDC’s recent change in guidance, ocean cruises have not been forced to shut down; they still remain open to bookings and sailings. And the aforementioned CSO is still set to expire on Jan. 15.
What’s more, river cruises can also successfully operate. Avalon Waterways just reported that after operating more than 100 voyages this summer and fall in Europe, Egypt and the Galapagos Islands, the line concluded its 2021 season with absolutely no cases onboard.
"Not one of our guests or crew members tested positive for COVID in 2021,” according to the brand.
