A Travel Advisor Guide to Understanding the Recent Ocean Cruise Updates

Editor's Note: Since this story went to press, both Royal Caribbean International and Celebrity Cruises launched summer Caribbean cruises for vaccinated travelers.

There is finally a light at the end of the tunnel for ocean cruise travel’s grand return, but with further cancellations and governmental roadblocks, it can still seem far away. What else stands in the way, and what additional steps need to occur before fleets can sail again from the U.S.? The answers are a bit murky, but are becoming clearer by the day.

Current Cancellations
When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued its “Framework for Conditional Sailing Order” in October of last year, there was hope that sailings could resume soon after. However, Frank Del Rio, president and CEO of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., reflected during the company’s recent earnings call that it was not going to happen quickly.

“There was great expectation,” he said. “But it proved to be more difficult than we first expected.”

Cruise lines are still awaiting instructions from the CDC as to exactly how and when the industry can proceed. Roger Frizzell, senior vice president and chief communications officer for Carnival Corporation, explained that the company is closely coordinating with the organization.

“Currently, we are awaiting additional technical specifications and other clarifications from the CDC that will allow us to undertake our initial test cruises as part of the process required to begin sailing again in the U.S.,” he said.

As the waiting game continues to play out, brands have been forced to extend their sailing suspensions, with most now targeting May and June 2021 resumptions at the earliest.

RELATED: The Travel Industry Reacts to CDC's New Framework for Cruising

The Effect of Vaccine Programs
Naturally, COVID-19 vaccines are on everyone’s mind — in particular, how they might affect operational timelines and health protocols in the near future.

Richard Fain, chairman and CEO of Royal Caribbean Group, pointed out during the company’s latest earnings call that its Healthy Sail Panel, part of a corporate partnership with Norwegian, was originally developed in a pre-vaccine environment. Now that vaccinations are present and becoming widespread, such approaches are likely to be tweaked.

“We think that the vaccine is the ultimate weapon,” he said.

But the so-called “big three” cruise corporations — Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) and Royal Caribbean — have not yet decided whether they will require vaccines for guests to board, at least from North America. Royal Caribbean just announced that its new Odyssey of the Seas will sail roundtrip from Israel, beginning in May, as the first fully vaccinated sailings where everyone onboard above the age of 16 will be inoculated against COVID-19.

“The availability of vaccines for the population is certainly positive news for the cruise industry, as well as the broader travel and hospitality industries,” said Carnival’s Frizzell. “It is an evolving situation with vaccines, and our decisions will be informed by our global medical and science experts and any requirements of the places in which we operate.”

So far, a growing number of cruise lines have announced required vaccinations, including American Queen Steamboat Company, Crystal Cruises, Victory Cruise Lines and, most recently, Virgin Voyages.

Signs point to more lines requiring the same soon, or at least holding on to hope that most passengers will already be vaccinated by the time cruises embark.

“We view vaccines as a powerful tool that, when combined with the various protective measures society is already accustomed to, such as face coverings and physical distancing, forms a multilayered, science-based approach to mitigate the risk of COVID-19 infection,” Del Rio said.

As cruising resumes, he expects vaccines to become widely available for the public, as well as Norwegian’s crew members.

Michael Bayley, president and CEO of Royal Caribbean International, shared that 98% of its 70,000 employees responded to a recent survey, and among those, 98% are in favor of being  vaccinated to return to work. It turns out more than 4,000 have already been vaccinated in their home countries.

Katina Athanasiou, chief sales officer for NCL, believes it will take a holistic approach beyond just vaccines to cruise again — with all hands on deck, clients included. She thinks dealing with the long-term threat of COVID-19 will take a multipronged, 360-degree strategy.

“It can’t be controlled just by testing,” she said. “And it can’t be vaccines or protocols alone. It’s everything working together, and the responsibility of the individual guests and consumers, wherever they are, to do the right thing.”

It can’t be controlled just by testing,” she said. “And it can’t be vaccines or protocols alone. It’s everything working together, and the responsibility of the individual guests and consumers, wherever they are, to do the right thing.

Destinations and the Alaska Problem
Regardless of when cruise lines are allowed to sail, they also need the individual destinations they visit to be able to safely accept visitors. That is why addressing global port availability and travel restrictions — following health and safety protocols — is also crucial  to NCL’s roadmap to relaunch.

“At the end of the day, the prevalence of the disease in our own country and around the world will be the greatest indicator of when we can resume cruising,” Del Rio said.

In a world where most cruise fleets are registered abroad, an additional wrench is thrown into the equation for reopening. Even if the CDC permits cruises to resume in Alaska, for instance, Canada’s recent prohibition of cruise travel in its waters until 2022 would bring big-ship cruising there to a halt.

The Passenger Vessel Services Act of 1886 requires foreign-flagged passenger vessels carrying guests between U.S. destinations (Alaska, for example) to first stop at a foreign port (such as Canada). This legislation is why Congress is currently working to negotiate a mutually beneficial compromise with Canada or a temporary repeal of the act.

RELATED: The Cruise Industry Is Not Giving Up on the Possibility of a 2021 Alaska Cruise Season

European Example
Some cruising has already restarted in Europe and elsewhere around the globe, with MSC Cruises being a prime example of a company that has done so safely and successfully.

“MSC Cruises is actively engaged and working to comply with the CDC and other relevant authorities’ requirements and guidelines in order to restart cruising operations out of U.S. ports in a safe and responsible way, similar to how MSC Cruises has restarted in other regions around the world,” said Ken Muskat, executive vice president and chief operating officer for MSC Cruises USA.

Another line, Carnival Corporation’s Costa Cruises, is scheduled to resume sailing on March 27 in the Mediterranean. The goal is to have its crew vaccinated by then.

Costa is optimistic that a successful resumption of operations would lead to the CDC granting permission for the line — and other Carnival brands — to resume sailing from the U.S.

“It is probably an unintended consequence,” said Scott Knutson, vice president of sales and marketing for Costa Cruises North America. “If we’re an example for the CDC here, that’s terrific.”

Executives from Royal Caribbean, which has operated the Quantum of the Seas from Singapore since early December 2020, have the same thought.

Those initial sailings “provide an opportunity to demonstrate proof of concept,” Fain said.

Only time will tell if positive sailings would be enough to eventually sway the CDC.

A Green Light From the CDC
Ultimately, it comes down to the CDC to grant permission for voyages to resume and join other already-approved forms of travel.

“Our communication and dialogue with the CDC is productive,” said Royal Caribbean’s Bayley. “When we have our discussions, it’s a relatively open process. They have assured us on several occasions that when these indicators really start to move in a positive way, then they will start working with us to get us back into operation. And that is exactly what we are seeing now. My sense is that we are getting closer to good news.”

Bayley expects technical specifications to come quickly, but Norwegian’s Del Rio is less sure.

“I don’t believe that we are awaiting the green light to cruise in the next few days,” he said. “That would not be correct.”

Instead, he believes that the upcoming CDC guidance is just the next step of the “multiphase approach that the CDC is taking.”

Fain added that while Royal Caribbean and the CDC are looking at the statistics — including declining infections — getting the go-ahead is not just a matter of numbers. Still unknown is how quickly the vaccine continues to roll out, and how new variants of the virus will affect the infection rate   going forward.

“I think it’s still too early for them, or us, to try and pinpoint this threshold that allows us to move forward,” he said.

As much as it bothers me to see other sectors of the travel community open, I’m happy for them ... I want to be happy for us, as well. And I think our day should be approaching.

A Staggered Return
In any case, cruising will not be able to resume instantaneously. The CDC may give a 60-day waiting period between test sailing results and revenue cruises, but it takes up to 90 days to bring a ship back online after a prolonged layup. This helps to explain why cruise cancellations are often made about three months before sailing dates.

“Once we start entering that 90-day or so window, then we owe it to everyone in the ecosystem — whether it’s travel agents, consumers, our own employees or the crew — to cancel cruises in the future,” Del Rio said.

Nonetheless, Norwegian does foresee the possibility of a full fleet operating by year’s end, as Del Rio indicated a six- to seven-month process of relaunching a ship per week, provided they can begin preparing vessels by June or July.

“Ultimately, we hope to be sailing again in markets around the world with a majority of our ships, representing all of our brands, by the end of the year,” Carnival’s Frizzell said. “Our strategy at first is to stagger our initial return with specific ships in selected markets.”

Carnival has implemented CDC protocols and started to reposition its ships in U.S. waters in preparation to sail again later this year.

Until then, “we’re just literally waiting,” said Royal Caribbean’s Bayley. “Our level of optimism is increasing as we see the infection rate decline so dramatically in the U.S. and the number of vaccines increasing. Hopefully, we will get the go-ahead soon, and we can start our trial sailing.”

Dealing With Demand
Surveys have shown that there continues to be great anticipation and pent-up demand for cruise travel, especially from former cruisers.

“Each of our brands is looking ahead with sailings for later this year and into 2022 with some terrific itineraries — as well as new ships — that drive excitement and enthusiasm from our guests,” Frizzell said. “Working closely together,  we continue to see a bright future for the entire cruise industry.”

For advisors looking to transition to a world with active cruise travel, MSC Cruises offers some advice.

“We are encouraging our travel advisors to share information about MSC Cruises’ restart in Europe — including protocols and the guest experience — with their clients,” Muskat said. “This will help give their U.S. clients a sense of what to expect and help demonstrate that the safety measures we have implemented are working, and equally important, that our guests are still able to have an enjoyable cruise vacation as they take advantage of all the ships have to offer.”

Where things head next is relatively simple.

“We need to get cruising operating again, and we’re hopeful,” Del Rio said. “As much as it bothers me to see other sectors of the travel community open, I’m happy for them. Trust me, I’m happy for the casino operators, the airlines and the hotels and resorts. I want to be happy for us, as well. And I think our day should be approaching.”