What: UNWTO Releases New Travel Recovery Forecast
According to the latest World Tourism Barometer from the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), international tourism is making stronger-than-expected strides toward recovery. The data shows a 182% year-over-year increase for the first quarter of 2022, with an estimated 117 million international arrivals around the world (compared to 41 million in the first quarter of 2021). Leaders of the recovery include Europe — where arrivals were up 280% year-over-year — and the Americas, which saw 117% more arrivals.
Why It Matters: Industry Experts Are More Optimistic About 2022
The first quarter of 2022 was so strong that the UNWTO has revised its overall outlook for 2022, and is now predicting that international tourist arrivals will reach 55-70% of 2019 levels. The forecast is based on increased flight reservations and results from the latest UNWTO Confidence Index, which revealed rising optimism about the industry, returning to 2019 levels for the first time since the start of the pandemic.
It’s important to note, however, that the current pace of recovery is highly dependent on factors including the rate at which travel restrictions are lifted, the war in Ukraine, new COVID-19 outbreaks and global economic conditions.
Fast Facts: International Travel Is Still Below 2019 Levels, But Is Improving Around the World
- Of the additional 76 million travelers in the first three months of this year, about 47 million were recorded in March, indicating that the pace of recovery is increasing.
- Europe’s rise in arrivals was driven by strong intra-regional demand, according to the World Tourism Barometer.
- Arrivals in Europe were still down 43% compared to 2019, and arrivals in the Americas were 46% lower.
- The Middle East saw a 132% increase in arrivals, while Africa was up 96% and the Asia-Pacific region rose 64% for the period.
- International tourism remained 61% below 2019 levels, with more progress expected throughout 2022.
- According to the latest UNWTO Panel of Experts survey, 83% of tourism professionals see better prospects for 2022 compared to 2021. More experts (48%, compared to 32% in January) also now see a potential return in international arrivals to 2019 levels in 2023.
