With 2026’s tumultuous first quarter now in the books, Hawaii tourism stakeholders seem to agree on at least one thing: It’s tough to forecast what comes next.
Between a war with Iran, soaring fuel prices, TSA shutdowns, dizzying stock market swings, devastating storms and historic flooding, the first four months of this year have provided U.S. travelers with a great deal to worry about.
And while one could argue that some of the recent geopolitical volatility provided a boost in Hawaii’s tourism business, it’s obvious that other developments most certainly did not.
“March was a bloodbath,” said Kelly Sanders, president of the Hawaii region for hotelier Highgate, commenting on the brand’s business across the Hawaiian Islands during an interview in late March. “With all the storms and the negative publicity across the market, March ended up being very, very tough. April is going to be tough as well — just a complete slowdown in booking pace after the storms and all the news.”
Rain, Rain, Go Away
According to research from the University of Hawaii at Manoa, more than 2 trillion gallons of rain — enough to fill 3 million Olympic-size swimming pools — fell on the Islands during March, swamping the communities of Waialua and Haleiwa on Oahu’s North Shore with especially destructive flooding.
Since then, Hawaii government officials and tourism marketers have been working hard to reassure travelers that the destination is open and eager to welcome visitors. David Hu, CEO of A|T Collective and Pleasant Holidays, recently spent time on Oahu, and he has been spreading a similar message.
“I was just there, and it’s freakin’ gorgeous,” Hu said with a chuckle. “There are some places on the North Shore where they’ve had some issues, but for the most part, it’s in great shape.”
Like Highgate’s Sanders, Hu says A|T Collective’s business to Hawaii has been off so far this year.
“Everything points to the fact that Hawaii should be up if you think about it, because Mexico’s still having its challenges,” Hu said. “Even parts of the Caribbean are having challenges. I think people are also shying away from long-haul travel. So where do you go? Hawaii should be having its time in the sun right now, but the Kona lows definitely knocked it off. It was doing relatively well until the Kona lows hit.”
Hawaii’s larger concern now is soaring fuel prices and their impact on trans-Pacific airfare, according to Hu, who says he’s hopeful business to the Islands will improve this summer.
“I'm not expecting anything, because I've learned not to expect anything these days,” he said, chuckling again. “It's really just a function of, how stable is our marketplace right now, geopolitically? One day we're at war, and the next day we're not. One day stock market prices are skyrocketing to all-time highs and the next day they're down 34%. That kind of volatility is not really giving people confidence to pull the trigger.”
Global Headwinds
Adriana Horton, a travel designer at Oklahoma-based Michelle’s Destinations, says her bookings to Hawaii are also down year over year. However, the longtime travel advisor notes that everything she’s selling is a little slower this spring.
“I think some of it is just because of the state of the economy and people being afraid to spend the money,” said Horton, adding that her international business is also off. “With everything going on in the world these days, people are more afraid to go out of the country.”
National news coverage about Hawaii’s Kona low storms did generate a fair bit of concern for Horton’s clients booked on trips to the Islands later this year. Although no clients canceled their trips, Horton says potential visitors are now more hesitant.
“People want to know, ‘Is it okay to go visit now?’” Horton explained. “Once they hear it's okay to go back, then it seems like I'm putting together just as many quotes. I just don’t seem to be booking as much, and I think that's sort of on par with everything I’m selling right now."
Sanders, meanwhile, notes that Highgate has seen May bookings strengthen somewhat.
“Then it looks like, from June on, we are back on pace where we had expected to be,” he said. “Overall, I'm optimistic that the year will continue to improve. It's just that you never know from one day to the next. I mean, one word from one guy can change everything."
Although still unwilling to make any bold forecasts about Hawaii’s peak visitor season business, Hu of A|T Collective does believe that intent to travel is still fairly high.
“The instability of the geopolitical issues has really shaken everybody in terms of where they go,” Hu said, suggesting that the Kona lows pushed Hawaii — at least for a time — into that maelstrom of uncertainty. “But I don’t think your readers should be thinking about Hawaii in the context of the Maui fire disaster or even the Kona lows. The Islands really are ready to receive visitors. And I think anybody who goes there these days will be delighted.”
